Home run surge at the start of the steroids era

Apologies for missing a few days there, I’m developing a couple fairly long posts and debating the double-play rules via email (I’ll write more about this later this week).

In any event - I came across a set of notes on something that never made it into the book that I found interesting. In the late 1980s, the game saw a huge surge of home runs that resulted in fairly wide speculation on what the causes were, from a juiced ball (which was investigated) to alternate theories like strike zone enforcement, a pitching drought, and so on.

I came across a fine example in a USA Today article at the Hall of Fame (undated, but it looks like it’s from a 1988 season preview) by Tom Barnidge, titled “Ball Didn’t Change, Did It? Naah”. He discussed what the possible causes were, how likely they seemed, including bat corking. Here’s what John Schuerholz (then with KC - he’d take over in Atlanta in 1990, where he’s done incredible work) said

“Sure, there are some corked bats. When I see bats explode, I believe they’re corked. But I really don’t think it’s all that pervasive. That’s not why we had all the home runs.”

The article ran a table, “Improved Outputs” listing “hitters who increased their home run totals by at least 10 from 1986 to 1987 (minimum of 400 at-bats each season)”. It runs, in part:

Andre Dawson, Cubs, 20 to 49
Will Clark, Giants, 11 to 35
Wade Boggs, Red Sox, 8 to 24
George Bell, Blue Jays, 31 to 47
Keith Moreland, Cubs, 12 to 27
[…]
Eric Davis, Reds, 27 to 37

The kicker is that there’s no one on that list - no one - who’s been tied into steroid use since. There are no Oakland players, though we now know that Oakland was, essentially, the infection vector for major league baseball, led by Jose Canseco (86 to 87? -2 HR, from 33 to 31).

I have a couple of observations on this:
- there was a home run surge at the same time as steroids started to come into the game, but the surge in large part was not due to steroids
- it’s possible that the huge surge in home runs actually drew attention away from the spread of steroids: after all, if the most prominent players having power surges were clean (and not at all the classic bulky muscle-bound guy we think of as suspects), then it’s hard to look at any specific cases, or team, and see a new factor
- because baseball had seen corked bats, rabbit balls, and the other causes before, those were the causes they speculated about. Now, we look to drugs for explanations of weirdness in baseball - but if there’s a new and widespread scourge, it’s quite likely it’ll be what no one expects, or even speculates is possible.